This prop is a winner if Chaz doesn't catch a ball, and he's listed as "out" on every injury report I've looked at.  I'd put a unit on it and see if it gets cancelled if he doesn't play, lol.

Update on Monday, September 14, 2009 at 8:28PM by The Sports Cruncher

2 minute warning 1st half and we haven't seen Schilens on the field.  The play is still pending at 5Dimes, so fingers crossed it pays.

Update on Monday, September 14, 2009 at 11:13PM by The Sports Cruncher

Cancelled by 5Dimes post game.  Assholes, lol.

Attractive juice when he only threw for less than 18 completions in 7 of 18 games last season.  On the road at Oakland last year he had 14, at home versus Oakland 22.  Still, you have to play the averages here getting the great plus juice.

Update on Monday, September 14, 2009 at 8:16PM by The Sports Cruncher

Hoping the Chargers can get one more possession before half to get a couple more completions.  Rivers has 7 right now, Oakland controlling the ball well.

The damn juice went up on this play from -115 to -130 when I went to confirm the bet.  It's all coming out of my son's college fund if it loses (see messy story below).

Fred Jackson will get almost every carry in this game, and was a better receiving back then Lynch when the two of them were both playing last year, so Edwards is sure to look his way often tonight.  Patriots' defense nothing great, but well coached, of course -- but I still see Jackson getting a minimum of 60 run and 40 pass yards, in the neighborhood of 100 total yards one way or the other.

Update on Monday, September 14, 2009 at 2:58PM by The Sports Cruncher

The prop on that Jackson play just went up to -145 in the space of a minute -- very marginal now, no harm in passing it.

Update on Monday, September 14, 2009 at 4:19PM by The Sports Cruncher

way to drop what would have been about a ten yard reception on the first drive, Fred.

Update on Monday, September 14, 2009 at 5:53PM by The Sports Cruncher

Winner, winner, chicken dinner, less than two minutes into the 2nd half, unless Fred goes for -5 yards the rest of the game.

The Patriots may shorten up their pass game a little bit to avoid Brady having to plant hard on his repaired knee and avoid potential contact, piling up a lot of first downs in the process.   Buffalo's struggling new offensive line will be ill-suited to picking up short 3rd Downs, especially with MarShawn Lynch suspended at RB.  Buffalo will probably be better suited trying to pick up yardage in big chunks with throws to TO and Lee Evans versus the Patriots' suspect pass defense.

I already have the first half Over 23.5 played (we've picked up 5 cents of juice value on that play so far), so it may be increasing our exposure some to add the "More Point First Half" play some, but the Brady led Patriots are a team that can jump out to quick leads and protect it in the second half with a good playcalling mixture of runs and passes.  The Bills' offense will be in a bad spot if they're consistently in passing situations late in the game.

Update on Monday, September 14, 2009 at 2:13PM by The Sports Cruncher

The line on the first prop is up to -130, which I'd pass on.

Update on Monday, September 14, 2009 at 2:44PM by The Sports Cruncher

Was just about to send out a play on Fred Taylor Under 49.5 receiving yards (-210) to win 2/3 unit but then my 3 year old son shit all over his room.  By the time I cleaned him and the room up the play was taken off the board at 5Dimes.  Too bad, that was looking like free money -- Kevin Faulk is their receiving back.  Fred would have been lucky to have one or two catches in that game.  Sometimes I have to share the messy details.

Update on Monday, September 14, 2009 at 4:20PM by The Sports Cruncher

Both teams should have had sustained drives inside opponent territory but failed because of 4th and inches and a dropped pass.  If I have to suffer through one more jinxed tv game, I swear...

Update on Monday, September 14, 2009 at 4:30PM by The Sports Cruncher

Missed FG, I am so jinxed.

Update on Monday, September 14, 2009 at 5:21PM by The Sports Cruncher

Pick 6 Buffalo -- finally one for us!  That missed FG looms large right now, though, as we'd have a first half Over winner if not for that.  Watch, the Pats will probably drive now and miss another FG to not cash the bet, lol.

Update on Wednesday, September 16, 2009 at 5:21PM by The Sports Cruncher

Winner on the last second chip shot field goal after all...

Just when our luck was looking up we get screwed on the 3rd and 1 Packers touchdown.  If the Packers are held to a field goal there my plays are even for the day.  Lol, I totally forsaw that play coming, as well.  I was like, PLEASSSSSSSSSE, don't fake the hand off and go long.  Sigh...And then of course the two point conversion to lose the Bears game play (unless the Bears come back and score with a minute left).

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 8:43PM by The Sports Cruncher

Good grief, almost lost the Bears 2nd half play on a last minute pick 6!  Please, end this day, lol.

IND/JAC -- None

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 11:18AM by The Sports Cruncher

1/2 UNIT:  NYJ +3 (+105 BM)

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 11:25AM by The Sports Cruncher

1/2 UNIT:  CIN -4

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 11:29AM by The Sports Cruncher

MIA/ATL -- NONE

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 11:32AM by The Sports Cruncher

2/3 UNIT:  BAL -7

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 11:37AM by The Sports Cruncher

1/2 UNIT:  MIN/CLE UNDER 19.5

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 11:41AM by The Sports Cruncher

1/2 UNIT:  TB/DAL OVER 20 (-105 MB)

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 11:44AM by The Sports Cruncher

1/2 UNIT:  CAR/PHI UNDER 20.5

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 11:48AM by The Sports Cruncher

1/2 UNIT:  NO -4

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 2:38PM by The Sports Cruncher

1/2 UNIT:  NYG PICK(-125)

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 2:49PM by The Sports Cruncher

1 UNIT:  SEA -0.5

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 3:04PM by The Sports Cruncher

1/2 UNIT:  SF/ARI UNDER 21 (-105)

Update on Sunday, September 13, 2009 at 7:07PM by The Sports Cruncher

1/2 UNIT EACH:  CHI PICK 2ND HALF (EV), CHI/GB UNDER 21 2ND HALF (EV)

Okay, quite frankly, that's not good, lol.  We've got 6 Overs (or less, depending on when you joined or what numbers you were not able to get) versus 2 Unders for the remaining picks.  Really, I'm okay with the picks, but my totals should've been a little lower across the board, and here's why:  teams on average score less in week #1 than they do the rest of the season.  Holy crap, you are a genius Cruncher! I hear you mocking from behind your keyboards, lol.   I've never analyzed scoring by week before, and it's only been the last couple of years where I've even handicapped the first few games of the season, as I traditionally had waited for 3 games worth of data.  Looking at the last couple of years scores just now, the median score for each team in week #1 was near the lowest in both years.  After week #1, though, there doesn't appear to be any correlation in scoring amounts.  The average amount of points per team in week #1 last year was pretty near season average, which means that there were a few teams who scored a lot of points boosting the average of the many teams who underperformed to their rest of the season averages.

That being said, totals have traditionally been my strong suit, and the area where I get the most line savings by beating line moves to the punch.  There's nothing that needs to be adjusted for the rest of the season.  In future seasons I will lower my week #1 totals a little bit to match historical tendencies, and will also go ahead and do it for this week's numbers which will make my lines match up a little closer to most of the lines across the board.

Ultimately, this isn't a major deal for this week, as winning will come down to the luck breaking fairly evenly in terms of turnovers mainly.  Those 4 missed field goals in the opening game cost us the win on the Over 34.5, and a push for those that had Over 35, because both teams missed 2 a piece which means the game still would've gone into overtime.

Any time my lines get lopsided in one direction on either sides or totals I take a look under the hood, and I've always been upfront about it.  About 2/3 of the way through last season I made a change because I had too many of the large favorites covering the spread (and most weren't), something I hadn't seen in prior seasons, but I'd significantly overhauled and definitely improved the entire system last summer.  Data driven handicapping is a continual game of trying to improve the results.  Now, as in the past, I'll be up front about any significant changes I'm making under the hood that affect the lines.  That being said I don't expect to do anything major under the hood this season, actually, lol.  But you never know, we'll see how the lines shake out from week to week.  I haven't posted 5 straight winning years by sticking to a few basic spreadsheet tools and only tweaking a little as I go.  My spreadsheet is extremely comprehensive and the results of hundreds and hundreds of hours of work.

So am I worried about any of the Overs or Team Total Overs as a result?   No, not really.  The value is probably slimmer on the plays, so we may be gambling on coin flips in a few spots, which we never want to do, but shouldn't get hurt to bad unless luck continues to frown upon us, lol.  As far as line movement goes, we beat line movement on several plays, and have only lost a half point on one game, the STL/SEA Over, so that's good.  I will however, probably try for a middle if any of the Over 43s we took were to rise as high as 45.  It probably won't happen, but you never know when the square action starts driving those totals up before gametime.  The NYJ/HOU line which I got at 43 is up to 44, I'd definitely take the Under 45 if it were to get there. 

So with

This same play has juice of -115 at 5Dimes right now.  Don't take worse than -110 on the juice here.

There is actually some money available at +110 at Matchbook, but the first 500$+ amount of money is at +105, so I'll list that for the play.  Over 43 (+105) and Over 42.5 (-110) are fairly close in value, so if you can't scoop up some of the high + juice on the play at Matchbook you're in okay shape taking the regular line at BookMaker, for example.

Kyle Orton has been practicing all week with a glove on his throwing hand, but his throws are reportedly looking to be normal (for better or worse).

If you were unable to get the Over 44 at Matchbook earlier, this first half play is a good alternative or addition to that play.  Most of the dynamics I wrote about in the NE/BUF first half play apply here.

Monday Night game, the return of Tom Brady, the Pats will want to get off to a fast start (don't they always?  Yes, lol).  Fortunately for them, they'll be up against one of the weakest defenses they'll face all year.  While my lines currently have this as the highest scoring game of the week, it's still not showing value on the Over for the game line (my week #1 totals tend toward the middle, valuing Overs on the small totals, and Unders on the higher totals).  

There are a couple of reasons why I like the 1st half Over in this one, though.  Games with blowout potential tend to have more scoring in the first half, leading to the aforementioned blowout.  This potential blowout will be a result of offensive, not defensive dominance.  Offenses become more predictable in the latter stages of blowout games -- the leading team runs predominantly, and the trailing team passes predominantly, giving the defense an advantage they don't have in the first half when offenses can use game theory in play selection to keep the defense from having an advantage in guessing plays.  Basic stuff, yes, but always worth considering. 

The 2nd factor is that the first half total for this game lies half a point below the key scoring number of 24.  Barring exactly 3 field goals (a high amount for a half) and two touchdowns in the first half, if this bet loses it will be because there were 21 or less points scored in the first half, which means if you'd bet the game to go Over 47 you'll be needing a minimum of 26 second half points almost every time, so which bet would you rather have; Over 23.5 1st half, or Over 26 2nd half?  That's the difference between betting the 1st half Over with a number of 23.5 (granted, some of the value has been taken away by the -115 juice on the line -- the books aren't complete dummies, lol, but the advantages outweight the extra vig imo) and betting Over 47 for the game.   If you were to only bet Over 47 for the game you're saying "I think there will be 21 points or less scored in the first half, but a minumum of 26 points scored in the 2nd half."  Doesn't seem like the way to go, does it?  

Feel free to comment if you find a fault in my logic or an opinion on the matter, lol.  I guess the main argument would be:  "If the first half play is a winner, you'd only need a MAXIMUM of 23 points in the second half to push the bet at worst."  Well, yes, but if the first half play is a winner you have a winner already, lol.  Additionally, there are the dynamics I mentioned that lead to less scoring in the second half.  Covering the first half Over but losing the game Over are a distinct possibility in this contest. 

One of the best ways to beat football is to take advantage of being on the right side of key numbers, and this I feel is a great example of that. 

Actually, it looks like the line is -6.5 most places, so it shouldn't be a problem buying the hook or taking the plus juice at Matchbook if you have an out there.

Not a lot of value on this one, but once again being no higher than 44 is not a bad spot for the Over.  Indy will look to attack vertically down both sidelines which could lead to some quick scoring drives.   Jacksonville's passing game should be better this year -- they certainly tried to work out the kinks during the preseason.  The Colts will be without Bob Sanders for about 5 games, and they've still got some nagging injuries defensively up front, so Jax should get their fair share of points.