Home Away My Line Actual Line ATS Side Play Value on Side Final Score SU Win My  Total Actual Total O/U Play Value on O/U
BAL CLE 14.0 13 BAL 2.6% 27 13 39.7 38 Over 4.2%
NYJ TEN 2.2 1 NYJ 3.5% 19 17 35.7 38 Under 6.4%
TB NYG -7.3 -6 NYG 3.1% 18 25 42.8 46 Under 6.7%
STL GB -0.8 -6.5 STL 13.8% 20 21 40.9 41.5 Under 1.8%
PHI KC 7.7 7.5 PHI 0.4% 24 16 39.7 38.5 Over 3.6%
NE ATL 4.4 4 NE 1.0% 25 20 44.8 47 Under 5.5%
MIN SF 4.6 7 SF 6.2% 22 17 38.7 41 Under 6.7%
HOU JAC 3.3 4 JAC 1.6% 25 21 46.2 47.5 Under 2.9%
DET WAS -6.4 -6.5 DET 0.2% 17 23 39.9 38.5 Over 3.3%
BUF NO -7.1 -4 NO 6.4% 21 28 48.9 52 Under 6.5%
SEA CHI -0.7 -2.5 SEA 4.2% 21 22 43.5 36.5 Over 16.1%
CIN PIT -1.9 -4.5 CIN 6.7% 18 20 38.3 36 Over 6.7%
OAK DEN -1.4 -2 OAK 1.3% 20 22 42.1 35.5 Over 15.8%
SD MIA 6.3 6 SD 0.6% 25 19 44.7 43 Over 3.9%
ARI IND 4.4 2.5 ARI 3.9% 26 22 47.9 47 Over 1.9%
DAL CAR 9.4 8.5 DAL 2.0% 28 18 46.4 48.5 Under 4.6%
  

***UPDATED 9/26/ 11:19 AM EST***

The lines are even tighter after the latest injury and weather updates.  The good news is that we got down a lot of numbers that had some playable value before they moved, which isn't reflected above in the lines, obviously.  I'm not fully utilizing all of the stats I do later in the season yet, which may be a reason for the closeness of my lines to the actual lines right now -- don't underestimate the linesmakers ability to craft their lines using fairly simple methods, lol.  Special teams play will be in my lines next week, and being worth about 1/7th of the line will definitely tune the value of the lines better.

Sheesh, these are some of the tightest lines I've ever seen.  Luckily we got down on many of the plays that had okayish value before they moved a 1 point or so and lost their value.  It's a weird week for linesmaking -- a near even split of using last year's stats and this year's performances.

Hasselbeck said today he's optimistic about playing versus Chicago -- either way, a healthy Wallace or dinged up Hasselbeck shouldn't be too different.  Clearly we'd like a healthy Hasselbeck, but that won't be the case now.

I'm reluctant to bet an Under in a Saints game after their last two have soared Over the number.  Both games were aided in scoring by big plays on offense, defense, and special teams.  Buffalo's pass defense is near the bottom of the league right now, not good for the Under.  Buffalo's no huddle offense is also not good for the Under.  My slightly lowered totals means I'd normally have this line a little less than 50, and it's rare that I get numbers that high with my more center-leaning lines.  This line currently has a -0.6 deduction applied to it based on rain and wind possiblities right now.  The weather forecast is the most important thing to keep an eye on for this game, really.  If winds pick up to 15 mph (and they would probably be cross winds) I'll probably take a piece of the Under.  If for some reason they pick up to 20+ mph with a decent chance of rain, that's a definite hit the Under scenario.  20+ mph cross winds equate to an instant play on the Under for any line that is still near it's initial opener. ***The number has dropped to 51.5, I guess people finally looked at the weather forecast, lol.  Or maybe it was the injury to the Bills' OL Butler, who knows?