| Home | Away | My Line | Actual Line | ATS Side Play | Value on Side | Final Score | SU Win | My Total | Actual Total | O/U Play | Value on O/U |
| PIT | TEN | 5.7 | 6 | TEN | 0.9% | 21 | 16 | 37.3 | 35.5 | Over | 4.7% |
| ATL | MIA | 4.4 | 4 | ATL | 1.0% | 24 | 20 | 43.7 | 43.5 | Over | 0.5% |
| BAL | KC | 10.3 | 12.5 | KC | 5.7% | 25 | 14 | 38.9 | 36 | Over | 6.7% |
| CAR | PHI | 2.0 | -2.5 | CAR | 10.3% | 23 | 21 | 43.9 | 43.5 | Over | 1.2% |
| CIN | DEN | 6.0 | 4.5 | CIN | 3.5% | 25 | 19 | 44.2 | 42.5 | Over | 4.5% |
| CLE | MIN | -4.2 | -3.5 | MIN | 1.9% | 17 | 22 | 39.1 | 40 | Under | 3.0% |
| HOU | NYJ | 2.9 | 4 | NYJ | 2.4% | 24 | 21 | 44.7 | 44 | Over | 2.3% |
| IND | JAC | 7.0 | 7 | IND | 0.0% | 26 | 19 | 44.2 | 45 | Under | 2.0% |
| NO | DET | 15.7 | 13.5 | NO | 5.0% | 30 | 14 | 43.7 | 49 | Under | 12.1% |
| TB | DAL | -2.5 | -5.5 | TB | 7.4% | 19 | 21 | 39.9 | 39 | Over | 2.3% |
| ARI | SF | 5.8 | 6 | SF | 0.6% | 23 | 17 | 40.6 | 46 | Under | 13.5% |
| NYG | WAS | 4.8 | 6.5 | WAS | 4.0% | 24 | 19 | 42.3 | 37 | Over | 13.3% |
| SEA | STL | 4.7 | 7.5 | STL | 6.5% | 24 | 19 | 42.4 | 40.5 | Over | 4.7% |
| GB | CHI | 2.8 | 4.5 | CHI | 4.0% | 23 | 20 | 43.5 | 46 | Under | 5.8% |
| NE | BUF | 9.6 | 10.5 | BUF | 2.1% | 27 | 18 | 45.1 | 47 | Under | 4.2% |
| OAK | SD | -8.0 | -9.5 | OAK | 3.5% | 17 | 25 | 41.8 | 43 | Under | 2.8% |
UPDATED 9/12/2009 11:16 PM
***See my post in the Week #1 plays section of why my totals have lowered across the board***
As you can see, my lines are pegged pretty tight to the actual numbers right now as far as the sides go. On the totals, there are several plays with bettable value.
My lines were created by combining stats from last year, injuries from last year, preseason play, current injuries, and significant QB changes (Orton for Cutler, anyone?), with the bulk of the line generated from last year's numbers.
I think it makes sense that week #1 would have the tightest lines, as the linesmakers had a lot more time to produce these lines, and the market has had time to mold them as well.
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I'd been showing some value on the Cardinals until I updated the lines with the final injury reports -- their receiving corps isn't in great shape, so now the game figures to be very close to the line. On the plus side, there's even more value on the Under now.


